Using Player Matchups to Gain an Edge When Betting the NBA Over/Under Odds

Betting against the basketball odds, especially the point spread can be tricky wagers, since unique situations present themselves on a nightly basis. Covers.com presents the NBA odds for each game, plus offers current information that helps bettors’ sort out some of these situations. There is also a way you can hedge your chances of winning, by learning how to use individual player matchups to gain an edge in the over/under line.

Keep in mind, that the NBA odds makers are keen to the idea that strong offenses and weak defenses are going to invariably mean a lot of points being put up on the scoreboard. It’s when you dig deep and look at the player on player matchups for these games that you gain an edge.

Set Up a Spreadsheet

First thing you need is a four-column spreadsheet. You can use a computer program, or go with the old-fashioned pen and paper method. Use these four columns, player name, position, points per game scored and defensive rank. Include all players on each roster, but focus on the ones who play more than 20 minutes per game on average. Most importantly, take all the starters and match them up against each other, trying to compare numbers for those projected to spend most of their time guarding the other.

Go Under

High scorers, who will be guarding the other team’s high point producer, may need to be a little more defensive minded in this game. Sure, other players may be called upon to compensate, but when there is a direct head to head match up between high scoring opponents, this frequently drives down the total points. In games where more than one head to head match up is probable, these are contests that will have a great chance of falling below the over/under line.

Pick Over

You can also look for the exact opposite. When one team relies heavily on backcourt scoring for instance, while the other gets most of their production from their big men under the basket, this can lead to an all out offensive assault on the scoreboard. Look for games that fall into this category to pick the over/under to be higher than the NBA odds line posts.

Check out the over/under line at Covers.com, and then compare the NBA oddsmaker’s predictions against some individual player matchups. This will not always give you an advantage when placing point spread bets, but understanding matchups in the NBA can boost your chances of beating the over/under.

Betting against the basketball odds, especially the point spread can be tricky wagers, since unique situations present themselves on a nightly basis. Covers.com presents the NBA odds for each game, plus offers current information that helps bettors’ sort out some of these situations. There is also a way you can hedge your chances of winning, by learning how to use individual player matchups to gain an edge in the over/under line.

Keep in mind, that the NBA odds makers are keen to the idea that strong offenses and weak defenses are going to invariably mean a lot of points being put up on the scoreboard. It’s when you dig deep and look at the player on player matchups for these games that you gain an edge.

Set Up a Spreadsheet

First thing you need is a four-column spreadsheet. You can use a computer program, or go with the old-fashioned pen and paper method. Use these four columns, player name, position, points per game scored and defensive rank. Include all players on each roster, but focus on the ones who play more than 20 minutes per game on average. Most importantly, take all the starters and match them up against each other, trying to compare numbers for those projected to spend most of their time guarding the other.

Go Under

High scorers, who will be guarding the other team’s high point producer, may need to be a little more defensive minded in this game. Sure, other players may be called upon to compensate, but when there is a direct head to head match up between high scoring opponents, this frequently drives down the total points. In games where more than one head to head match up is probable, these are contests that will have a great chance of falling below the over/under line.

Pick Over

You can also look for the exact opposite. When one team relies heavily on backcourt scoring for instance, while the other gets most of their production from their big men under the basket, this can lead to an all out offensive assault on the scoreboard. Look for games that fall into this category to pick the over/under to be higher than the NBA odds line posts.

Check out the over/under line at Covers.com, and then compare the NBA oddsmaker’s predictions against some individual player matchups. This will not always give you an advantage when placing point spread bets, but understanding matchups in the NBA can boost your chances of beating the over/under.